Rainfall Trends and Water Resources: An In-depth Analysis of Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Precipitation is the main component of any hydrological system, and it also controls the availability of water resources of any region. Some recent studies have shown that climatic factors which are controlling the hydrology of any system must be studied on local scale than on a global scale. Although climatic changes are occurring on a global scale, the trends and the effects of climatic changes can vary from place to place. In this paper an attempt is made to carry out the analysis on annual rainfall data of 13 rain gauges in the Punjab (Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Faisalabad, Lahore, Jhelum, Rafique, Sargodha, Murree, Multan, Lahore PBO, Mianwali, Khanpur), to determine the variability of rain for different regions of Punjab. Tends of rainfall have been determined for these regions using the Mann–Kendall Test. To detect these changes in the data the data was subjected to intervention analysis (using cumulative summation / CUSUM method). The mean monthly rainfall data for a period of 40 years was collected from PMD (Pakistan Meteorological Department). From the analysis of the data a significant trend was observed in the rainfall of the Punjab.